一种基于贝叶斯理论的区域斜坡稳定性评价模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

伍宇明  兰恒星  高星  李郎平  孟云闪 《工程地质学报》2014,22(6):1227-1233

本文结合滑坡物理模型和统计模型的优点,针对小流域滑坡稳定性分析,建立了一种基于贝叶斯理论的区域斜坡稳定性评价模型。该模型主要采用灾害自身信息来修正原始模型中的参数,解决了区域稳定性评价中参数难以确定的问题。该方法首先设定模型的初始参数分布,然后利用采样点雨前和雨后稳定性不同的信息建立验证方程,再根据马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟和贝叶斯方法确定最终的参数分布,进而得出区域稳定性分布。应用该模型对福建省蔡源小流域的6 13滑坡群发性事件进行分析。结果显示,蔡源小流域地区的无量纲黏聚系数C为0.028,有效摩擦角为16.7,土壤的导水系数T和降雨量q的比值为529.026m,可能不稳定地区和不稳定地区达到76.0%。该模型利用历史灾害数据自动模拟出合适的参数,对区域滑坡稳定性评价具有重要意义。  相似文献   

列车振动荷载作用下南京细砂振动累积变形特性试验研究     

庄海洋  陈磊  沈礼伟  左玉峰 《工程地质学报》2014,22(6):1294-1300

列车振动荷载作用下松散砂土振密造成的早期路基沉降将对列车的正常运行产生很大的影响。本文以南京地区新近沉积片状细砂为研究对象,采用英国GDS空心圆柱扭剪仪模拟列车振动荷载的实际应力路径,并考虑排水条件、试样围压和加载幅值等因素,初步研究了2000列次(14000振次)列车振动荷载作用下南京新近沉积片状细砂的振动排水特性和竖向累积变形特性。实验结果表明,试样围压对南京片状细砂的竖向累积变形的影响较为明显,同时,当试验围压较小时,加载幅值对试样的竖向累积变形的影响更大。其次,排水条件主要对列车运营前期的路基累积变形产生明显的影响,对后期的累积变形的影响基本可以忽略。最后,根据试验结果,本文也初步给出了排水条件和不排水条件下南京片状细砂的竖向累积应变增长曲线的新预测公式及其参数取值。研究结论对列车振动荷载作用下新近沉积砂性土的动力学特性及其累积变形的计算方法等问题的研究具有很好的参考价值。  相似文献   

超浅层顶管施工诱发地表沉降规律分析     

张海生 《岩土钻凿工程》2014,(2):61-66

随着社会化进程的推进,顶管法在各类城市地下管线的施工中得到广泛应用。超浅层顶管施工。绝大多数是在已建道路下进行的,施工时,易发生地表沉降,且沉降量很大,易破坏路面。为此,超浅层顶管施工对周围环境的影响已引起人们足够的重视,其施工及控制技术是目前迫切需要掌握的。利用有限差分软件FLAC3D对顶管施工过程中地表沉降进行模拟,旨在了解超浅层顶管施工引起的力学效应。对超浅层顶管施工引起的地表沉降作出预测,为采取措施减小地表沉降提供依据。  相似文献   

A relook at NEH‐4 curve number data and antecedent moisture condition criteria     

Surendra Kumar Mishra  Vijay P. Singh 《水文研究》2006,20(13):2755-2768

This paper investigates the variation of the popular curve number (CN) values given in the National Engineering Hand Book–Section 4 (NEH‐4) of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) with antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and soil type. Using the volumetric concept, involving soil, water, and air, a significant condensation of the NEH‐4 tables is achieved. This leads to a procedure for determination of CN for gauged as well as ungauged watersheds. The rainfall‐runoff events derived from daily data of four Indian watersheds exhibited a power relation between the potential maximum retention or CN and the 5‐day antecedent rainfall amount. Including this power relation, the SCS‐CN method was modified. This modification also eliminates the problem of sudden jumps from one AMC level to the other. The runoff values predicted using the modified method and the existing method utilizing the NEH‐4 AMC criteria yielded similar results. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The use of 137Cs as a tracer in an erosion study in south limburg (the Netherlands) and the influence of chernobyl fallout     

A. P. J. De Roo 《水文研究》1991,5(2):215-227

The ¹³⁷Cs radioactivity of soils was used as a tracer of soil erosion in a catchment in the Netherlands: 143 samples were analysed to map the ¹³⁷Cs redistribution using geostatistical interpolation methods. Caesium-137 activities on grassland are significantly higher than on arable land. Also, ¹³⁷Cs activities on waning slopes are higher and activities on steep slopes are lower. The soil erosion estimates, derived from the ¹³⁷Cs data, are used to validate the USLE erosion model. The recent Chernobyl nuclear accident also contributed to the ¹³⁷Cs activity. However, the Chernobyl input of ¹³⁷Cs, with a constant ratio of 1.765:1 to ¹³⁴Cs, cannot be used as a tracer of soil erosion. Because of the rapid decay of ¹³⁴Cs, we will not be possible to separate the sources of ¹³⁷Cs in the near future in areas significantly influenced by Chernobyl fallout and in these areas ¹³⁷Cs can no longer be used as a soil erosion tracer.  相似文献   

Estimation of soil moisture status using near infrared reflectance     

W. R. Whalley  P. B. Leeds-Harrison  G. E. Bowman 《水文研究》1991,5(3):321-327

The use of a prototype near infrared reflectance meter for estimating the water content of soil is described. The instrument, developed from one used for estimating the water content of forage is based on the measurement of reflectance of infrared light emitted at wavelengths of 1450 nm, a strong water absorption band, and 1300 nm a weak water absorption band. Calibration curves of reflectance and reflectance ratio versus moisture content for pure sands and sand/clay mixes are presented. Problems associated with the measurement of moisture content using this technique on swelling soils are highlighted. The use of a modified form of this instrument for estimating soil moisture status in the field is discussed.  相似文献   

Thermal conductivity modelling of terrestrial soil media—A comparative study     

B. Usowicz  J. Lipiec  A. Ferrero 《Planetary and Space Science》2006,54(11):1086-1095

The paper describes prediction of thermal conductivity in terrestrial soil media. The model operates statistically by probability of occurrence for contacts between particular fractional compounds. It combines physical properties, specific to particular compounds, into one apparent conductance specific to the mixture. The concept of substituting grain compounds by hypothetical spheres is an essential tool to control porosity by the number of spheres, their radii and probability of contacts between them. The spheres are equal in radii. The spheres substitute compounds, regardless of the phase state. Control of particular phase states is possible by means of specific properties assigned to the spheres, at the input to the model. Performance of the model is successfully proved for many diverse terrestrial soil media in a wide range of bulk density, composition, water and water vapour content. Only the compounds of sand decline from the expected values and require introducing a correction to the thermal conductivity of sand grains. One possible explanation is that the thermal conductivity of sand is uncertain. Nevertheless, the model is useful and worth extending beyond terrestrial purposes.  相似文献   

夏津县黄河故河道区土地沙化及防治          下载免费PDF全文

王贞国  宋桂芝  王桂玲 《山东国土资源》2003,19(Z1):38-39

土地沙化问题的存在,不仅破坏了自然生态环境,而且对人民群众的生产和生活造成严重的影响。本文就夏津县黄河故道风蚀沙化地的发育现状、危害程度及形成原因进行分析,并提出了防治对策。  相似文献   

Water balance modelling in lateritic terrain     

Elin Langsholt 《水文研究》1994,8(1):83-99

An analytical approximate model for unsaturated flow in a spatially variable field, coupled with infiltration and evapotranspiration at the upper boundary and a fluctuating water-table at the lower boundary, has been developed. The unsaturated flow equations depend on parameterizations of θ(Φ) and K(Φ). They are based on the notion of a moving, discontinuous front. The field heterogeneity refers to saturated hydraulic conductivity only. Horizontal variability is considered, and the flow medium is approximated as a set of uncorrelated, vertically homogeneous columns. Expectations and variances obtained with this approach have been compared with observations of the field hydrological processes. Three important aspects of the hydrology in this lateritic terrain are rapid water-table response, Hortonian surface runoff generation and soil suction variability. The stochastic conceptualization used explains to a high degree these characteristics, although some limitations are demonstrated.  相似文献   

A Simulating Experiment in the Process of Soil Erosion on Bare Land in Mt. Tanakami     

ZHAO Wei  HU Ke  Wang Xikui  Akitsu Kimoto  Takahisa MIZUYAMA 《世界地质(英文版)》2001,4(2)

In order to understand the process of surface erosion and acquire basic data of conditions on hillslope without vege tation, a sprinkling experiment is conducted on a bare slope in Mt. Tanakami in the central part of Japan. Based on the mea surements of runoff, mean soil erosion depth, and sediment yield, etc. , the results suggest the following characteristics in the process of surface erosion in the experimental area. (1) The occurrence of sediment discharge is interrupted; (2) Surface runoff is a saturated overland flow; (3) The mean soil erosion depth is thick compared with other areas in Mt. Tanakami;(4) Sediment discharge process is detachment- limited.  相似文献